On Conviction
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Conviction isn't certainty. It's the willingness to act before the evidence is in — and to keep acting when it points the wrong way.
The market rewards the second mover with safety and the first mover with everything else. Most people pick safety because safety feels free. It isn't.
The cost of waiting
Every day you wait for consensus, the people who didn't wait compound. By the time you have enough proof to be comfortable, the window has moved. The only way to catch it again is to find the next one — and not wait.